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Your Fun & Profitable Online Business · Episode 80

Observe, Not Explain

The moment something happens in your business, your brain wants to tell you why. But your first explanation is not evidence. A small pause between noticing and deciding can save you from solving the wrong problem.

Hosted by Wendy MuzzyObservation + curiosity + better decisions
Cover artwork for Episode 80, Observe, Not Explain

Press play and put one tiny pause between the clue and the conclusion

0:00–:–

Having trouble? Open the audio directly.

The pause changes the decision

Two paths start with the same observation

One path turns your first thought into a verdict. The other gives the clue enough room to become useful information.

The expensive shortcutNotice it. Explain it. Fix it.

Observation
↓
First explanation
↓
Big decision
The detective pathNotice it. Pause. Investigate.

Observation
↓
Pause + curiosity
↓
Possibilities + evidence
↓
Next best decision

Most business owners are pretty good at noticing when something changes. A launch brings in fewer sales. An email gets fewer replies. A new platform feels slow. A project keeps getting avoided. The trouble often begins in the next second, when the brain turns the observation into an explanation.

The explanation may sound convincing because it arrives quickly. “My audience is tired of me.” “The offer is wrong.” “Email marketing does not work anymore.” But speed does not make a story true.

An explanation is not an observation. Your first thought is a possibility, not a verdict.

Your brain would rather be certain than curious

Uncertainty is uncomfortable. Knowing what went wrong feels productive because if you know the problem, you can start fixing it.

That is exactly why the shortcut is so tempting. But certainty without evidence can make a business much heavier than it needs to be.

Observation“This launch made fewer sales.”

That is a fact you can investigate.

Story“Something is wrong with my offer.”

Maybe. But traffic, messaging, timing, consistency, questions, and conversion could all explain the same result.

Solving the wrong problem gets expensive fast

You can rewrite an entire sales page when too few people visited it. You can lower the price when people did not understand the value. You can abandon a platform when the experiment simply needed more time.

The cost is not only money. It is time, energy, confidence, and momentum. Every unnecessary rebuild adds friction to a business you are trying to make lighter.

Try one very useful word: yet

Instead of forcing an answer“I don’t know why this happened yet.”

That sentence does not make you indecisive. It keeps understanding open long enough for you to find better evidence.

“My launch had fewer sales than I expected. I do not know why yet.” “I am avoiding the videos for this offer. I do not know why yet.” The observation stays intact, but the conclusion stops pretending to be settled.

Replace one explanation with three possibilities

Wendy’s practical move is simple: when your brain gives you one explanation, ask for three possibilities instead.

1The first story

The subject line may not have been compelling.

2A context possibility

The email may have landed during a week when more subscribers were away.

3A systems possibility

Deliverability may have changed and fewer messages may have reached inboxes.

You are not choosing the winner yet. You are creating enough possibility to stay curious.

Your job is not to know. Your job is to learn.

A lot of entrepreneurs quietly believe they should always know the right strategy, offer, platform, price, message, or next move. That is a crushing job description.

A lighter one is available: notice what is happening, stay curious, gather enough evidence, and make the next best decision.

NoticeWhat actually happened?
PauseWhat story am I immediately telling myself?
ExpandWhat are three plausible explanations?
InvestigateWhat evidence would help me tell them apart?
DecideWhat is the next useful move based on what I know now?

You don’t have to predict the future. You simply have to keep learning from the present.

Observation is not the destination. It is the invitation. You notice something, curiosity creates questions, questions create possible explanations, and those explanations can become experiments. That is where useful learning begins.

Your action step

The next time something unexpected happens in your business:

  1. Write down only what you observed.
  2. Add: “I don’t know why this happened yet.”
  3. Write three possible explanations without choosing one.
  4. Ask what evidence would help you decide what to test or change next.

Questions about observing before explaining

What is the difference between an observation and an explanation?

An observation describes what happened. An explanation assigns a cause or meaning to it. Keeping those steps separate helps prevent an assumption from becoming the basis for a big business decision.

How do I stop jumping to conclusions in my business?

Write the observable fact first, add “I don’t know why yet,” and generate several plausible explanations. Then look for evidence that can help distinguish between them.

Does pausing make me less decisive?

No. The goal is not endless analysis. A short pause improves the quality of the decision by helping you make sure you are solving the right problem.

What should I do when results are worse than expected?

Look at more than the outcome. Investigate reach, timing, messaging, consistency, clicks, questions, conversion, and technical issues before making a major change.

Why use three possible explanations?

Three is enough to interrupt the feeling that your first story must be true. It keeps curiosity alive without requiring you to generate an overwhelming list of possibilities.

Give yourself room to think

Bring one meaningful priority to CEO Hour

CEO Hour gives you a free weekly space to slow down, work intentionally, and make progress without needing to have everything figured out first.

Join CEO Hour

Read the full episode transcript

Episode 80 transcript: Observe, Not Explain

Most of us do not have an observation problem

Hey there, and welcome to episode 80 of your fun and profitable online business. This is the podcast that helps you build a business that feels as good as it looks. I’m Wendy Muzzy, and I help women entrepreneurs create fun and profitable businesses by reducing friction, making better decisions, and designing a business that feels so much lighter.

Now, over the last few weeks, we’ve been business detectives over here. We started by learning how to observe before jumping into problem solving. Then we turned that detective work inward by looking at our thoughts, our emotions, and our behaviors. And last week, we looked at the clues our businesses are constantly leaving behind in our systems, in our wins, in our customers, our numbers, and even those moments of friction throughout the day.

Now today, I want to talk about what happens next, because I’ve noticed something. Most of us don’t have an observation problem. We really have an interpretation problem.

The moment we notice something, our brains immediately want to explain it. But here’s the thing. Explanations aren’t observations. And if we skip straight to an explanation, we may end up solving a problem we don’t actually have.

So today, I want to talk about the pause between noticing and deciding what it means. All right, let’s dive in.

Your brain would rather have an explanation than uncertainty

Now, our brains love certainty, even when certainty isn’t accurate. Imagine you send an email, and normally you get 20 replies, but maybe this week you only got three. Within seconds, your brain wants to offer you a story. My audience is tired of hearing from me, or email marketing just doesn’t work anymore.

You don’t want to spend time focusing on the three people that did reply. You want to focus on how the number is down. And these stories appear so quickly because your brain would rather have an explanation than uncertainty, even when it’s the wrong explanation.

And I get it. Uncertainty feels uncomfortable. We like knowing what happened. We like believing we figured it out.

But here’s what I’ve learned from the years of medical research. Solid research doesn’t rush toward certainty. The researchers stay curious.

And I think this is one of the best skills we can embody as entrepreneurs, because curiosity creates space, space to notice, space to investigate, space to learn. And without that space, we end up making some really expensive assumptions.

Two different paths after an observation

Okay, I want you to picture two different paths here. The first one, something happens, you immediately explain it, then you act. Observation, explanation, decision. Now, around here, we love action. And this is the path a lot of us take.

But here’s another option. Something happens. You notice it. You pause. You get curious. Then, and only then, you begin looking for possible explanations. Observation. Pause. Curiosity. Understanding. Decision.

That little pause changes everything because it keeps you from mistaking your first thought for truth. And that’s where better decisions begin.

The problem on the surface may not be the real problem

Because the problem we see on the surface is seldom the real problem. Let me give you an example.

Imagine your latest launch brought in fewer sales than you expected, maybe less than last quarter. What’s the first explanation that comes to mind? Maybe you think, something is wrong with my offer. Okay, maybe there is. But what else could explain it?

Did you get enough eyeballs on it? Was your messaging clear? Did you promote it consistently or as consistent as usual? Did people click and not buy? Did they reply with questions? Was your timing different?

Suddenly here in this place, there isn’t one possible explanation. There are quite a few. And that place is so much healthier to be and to make decisions from.

Because when we latch onto the very first explanation, we stop investigating. But when we stay curious, we give ourselves the chance to discover possibilities and solutions that can make a huge difference here.

Certainty can feel productive and still be expensive

Now, another piece of this is important to address. It’s productivity. Certainty often feels productive. It feels decisive. It feels like you know exactly what’s wrong and you can move towards fixing it.

But certainty without evidence is where things can get really expensive. Maybe you hire a copywriter to rewrite your entire sales page when the real problem was simply that not enough people visited it.

Or maybe you lower your prices when the real issue was your audience didn’t understand the value you brought to the table.

Or maybe you abandoned a new platform that you invested a lot into when you simply hadn’t given enough time to try it and to see if it would work.

Now, the cost here isn’t just time. It’s energy, it’s confidence, it’s momentum. It’s all the pieces we need for a fun and profitable business.

Because every time we solve the wrong problem, We are making our business feel way heavier than it ever needs to.

Try adding one tiny word: yet

Now, I want to offer you a different sentence here. Instead of saying, I know why this happened, try saying, I don’t know why this happened yet.

There’s something incredibly freeing about that little tiny word yet. It reminds us that understanding is still unfolding.

Imagine saying, you know, my launch had fewer sales than I expected. I just don’t know why yet. Or, I’m avoiding recording these videos for my new offer. I just don’t know why yet.

That doesn’t make you indecisive. It makes you curious. And curiosity leads to better answers. And it’s way better than certainty will ever be.

Replace one story with three possibilities

Now, one simple practice that’s helped me is replacing one story with three possibilities. Instead of asking myself to find the answer, I ask myself what are three possible explanations.

One of them might be the story I’m telling myself. Let’s use an example of email open rates. Maybe they’ve dropped lately. And a possible explanation number one might be the subject line wasn’t compelling. Now that might be the first thought I thought. And maybe it’s true.

Maybe another explanation is it was sent during a week that a lot of people were on vacation. And another explanation could be something’s happening on the back end and the email’s not even getting into inboxes.

We haven’t decided which explanation here is correct. We’re simply creating possibilities. And those possibilities is what keeps us curious.

Your job is to make the next best decision

Now, I want to think a lot of entrepreneurs secretly believe their job is to have answers, to always know the right strategy, the right offer, the right platform, the right decision.

But I don’t think that’s actually our job. I think our job is so much simpler. Our job is just to notice, to stay curious and gather enough evidence to make the next best decision.

Not the perfect decision, but one that helps you move forward and one that feels so much lighter because it removes the pressure to be the fortune teller.

You don’t have to predict the future here. You simply have to keep learning from the present.

Observation is the invitation, not the destination

Now, over the last few weeks, we’ve talked a lot about observation. But observation isn’t the destination. It’s just the invitation here.

You notice something in your business, that’s an invitation to become curious. And that curiosity leads to questions. And those questions will eventually lead to explanations.

And then those possible explanations become experiments. And those experiments you do are where the learning happens.

Everything starts with one tiny decision, not to rush, not to assume, not to explain, just to pause.

That little pause might be 30 seconds, but it has the power to completely change the quality of your decisions.

Your action step: create possibilities before choosing an explanation

All right, let’s get your action step for this week. The next time something unexpected happens in your business, I want you to resist the urge to explain it.

Instead, I want you to write down the observation. Then challenge yourself to write three possible explanations. Don’t decide which one is right. Just create possibilities.

Because possibilities keep your curiosity alive. And I firmly believe curiosity is one of the greatest competitive advantages you can develop as a business owner.

Give yourself room to think

All right, if you’ve been enjoying this business detective series and you’d like a dedicated hour each week to slow down, think intentionally, and work on your business, I would love for you to join us at CEO Hour.

It’s most every Wednesday, and we come together for a focused hour to make meaningful progress without the pressure to have everything figured out. You can reserve your free spot at wendymuzzy. com/ceo.

And if this series has been helping you see your business through a new lens, I would love for you to share it with your business bestie.

All right, that’s it for today. Until next time, happy building your fun and profitable business.